Mounting tensions ahead of Thai election
Tensions are rising in Thailand ahead of the February 2 general election. Despite a weekend of bloody attacks, the government is sticking to the poll and has declared a state of emergency in Bangkok and nearby areas.
Under the 60-day state of emergency, set to take effect on Wednesday, January 22, security authorities will have expanded powers in terms of conducting raids and arrests, and greater immunity from prosecution.
The decree follows weeks of mass anti-government demonstrations that have paralyzed parts of the capital and triggered deadly violence, including grenade attacks and shootings.In two separate incidents on Friday and Sunday, one person was killed and almost 70 others were injured when hand grenades were thrown at rally sites filled with protesters. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, questioned whether the declaration was justified, saying the demonstrators had been peaceful.
Despite the recent developments, Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra seems determined to proceed with an election on February 2, arguing that the ballot box is the best way to resolve the country's latest political crisis.
Disrupt the vote!
But with the vote now less than two weeks away, the latest incidents have fuelled fears that the safety of voters can't be guaranteed.
"The government is walking into its own trap," political analyst Panitan Wattanayagorn told DW. "If people can't go out and reach their polling station, that will be very destructive for the legitimacy of the election."
He says all sides in the political stand-off need "breathing space" and called on the prime minister to postpone the poll to open up fresh negotiations with her main opponents. The almost decade-long conflict between supporters of Thailand's old guard and the wealthy Shinawatra family erupted again in November when hundreds of thousands of supporters of the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) took to the streets.
Protesters were incensed about a proposed amnesty bill that would have seen Thaksin – who was ousted by the military in 2006 - cleared of corruption and allowed his return to the country. The government called a snap election after street protests erupted demanding the resignation of PM Yingluck.
The main opposition Democrat Party reacted by announcing it would boycott the vote. Protesters have since prevented several candidates from registering, prompting the Election Commission to ask the government to postpone the vote.
Failed talks
Last week, Yingluck met with the Election Commission and smaller opposition parties but her main opponents were noticeably absent and no agreement was reached despite concerns about the potential struggle to maintain law and order on election day.
DW.DE
Military undecided in Thailand conflict
For two and a half months Thailand has been rocked by protests. The army, one of the country's central pillars of power, seems reluctant to get involved. But rumors are spreading about a potential military coup. (14.01.2014)
Demonstrators in Bangkok demand Yingluck step down
Tensions mount over Thai election and reform
"The potential for violence is a real possibility." said Kim McQuay, the Thailand Country Representative for the Asia Foundation. "We're also in a situation which is likely to result in further agitation beyond election day."
McQuay told DW that the Democrat Party's boycott will also weaken the next government's mandate to run the country.
"In an ideal arrangement, the political parties of all sides would come to some sort of agreement about the conditions under which the opposition would be prepared to contest the election. I guess that would be a pre-election reform agenda," he said.
Reform plans
Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban – a former senior leader of the Democrats – has vowed that once his movement forces Yingluck from office, he will suspend Thailand's "flawed" democracy and install an unelected "People's Council" to run the country.
Accusing the Thaksin "regime" of cronyism, corruption and ultra-populist policies, there's been little discussion of why he can't reform politics from within parliament.
The government has come up with its own reform plan but maintains it can only be implemented after the election. Panitan says the two sides are closer to an agreement than they would publicly admit.
Yingluck's Reform Council - part of her reform plans - would work alongside the elected government. It would likely be made up of key figures from the military, bureaucracy and business. But analysts agree it would need better representation from the whole of Thai society.
"The two sides differ only in the timing and who should push through the reform process. But the concepts of more proportional representation and the need for better, independent institutions are very much agreed upon among the different political groups," he told DW.