Despite our formal training in this area and despite our common sense about how
clear this notion of uncertainty is, we see it violated every day in the business world. A
manager makes a good decision, but the outcome is bad and the manager gets fired. A
doctor uses the best established procedures in a medical operation and the patient dies;
then the doctor gets sued for malpractice. A boy refuses to accept an unsolicited ride home
with a distant neighbor on an inclement day, gets soaking wet on the walk home, ruins his
shoes, and is reprimanded by his parent for not accepting the ride. A teenager decides to
drive on the highway after consuming too many drinks and arrives home safely without
incident. In all of these situations, the outcomes have nothing to do with the quality of the
decisions or with the process itself. The best we can do is to make consistently rational
decisions every time we are faced with a choice with the knowledge that in the long run
the “goods” will outweigh the “bads.”
Despite our formal training in this area and despite our common sense about howclear this notion of uncertainty is, we see it violated every day in the business world. Amanager makes a good decision, but the outcome is bad and the manager gets fired. Adoctor uses the best established procedures in a medical operation and the patient dies;then the doctor gets sued for malpractice. A boy refuses to accept an unsolicited ride homewith a distant neighbor on an inclement day, gets soaking wet on the walk home, ruins hisshoes, and is reprimanded by his parent for not accepting the ride. A teenager decides todrive on the highway after consuming too many drinks and arrives home safely withoutincident. In all of these situations, the outcomes have nothing to do with the quality of thedecisions or with the process itself. The best we can do is to make consistently rationaldecisions every time we are faced with a choice with the knowledge that in the long runthe “goods” will outweigh the “bads.”
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