A detailed analysis of 49 firms subject to AAERs suggests that approximately onequarter
of the misstatements meet the legal standards of intent. In the remaining three
quarters, the initial misstatement reflects an optimistic bias that is not necessarily
intentional. Because of the bias, however, in subsequent periods these firms are more
likely to be in a position in which they are compelled to intentionally misstate earnings.
Overconfident executives are more likely to exhibit an optimistic bias and thus are
more likely to start down a slippery slope of growing intentional misstatements.
Evidence from a high-tech sample and a larger and more general sample support the
overconfidence explanation for this path to misstatements and AAERs.