We found that atmospheric pressure changes in the mid-latitudes precede the
development of ENSO events and determine the strength of Pacific warming. This
challenges the commonly held perception that ENSO events are driven by air-sea
interactions along the equator. In October 2005, we submitted a paper demonstrating
this to the Journal of Climate1
.
› An experimental ENSO sequence system (ESS) has been found to skilfully forecast eastern
Pacific sea surface temperatures a year in advance, and skilfully predict May-October
rainfall for much of the country with 4-6 months lead-time. These forecasts have the
potential to revolutionise farming and risk management practices across Australia and in
other regions of the world where weather is affected by El Niño and La Niña events.
› The largest decline in the MeanSOI between October (year -1) and May is a clear indicator
of whether an El Niño event will develop, and is a strong indicator of major drought years in
the Australian grain belt.