the response obtained by holding constant cyclically adjusted taxes, or, in other words,
allowing only for the automatic response of taxes to GDP and inflation. Conversely, panel B presents the cumulative GDP response to a “pure” tax cut, i.e. holding constant
cyclically adjusted spending. Comparing these response to those in panel E of Table 6
and panel A of Table 9, respectively, it is clear that there is very little difference in the
short run, and a slightly larger difference at 3 years; qualitatively, however, the results
are very similar. In S2, a spending - induced deficit stimulates output only in the US and
in Australia; a tax - induced deficits, only in Canada. In most other cases, both shocks
have negative effects. Thus, a general, important lesson of these experiments is that the
notion of “deficit shock” has little macroeconomic significance: it matters greatly whether
the deficit is caused by a spending increase or a tax cut.
Similar results (not shown) obtain from a slightly different experiment: in response to
a spending shock, cyclically adjusted taxes are held constant only over the first 4 quarters,
instead than over the whole horizon.