Third, there could be particular institutional reasons why commercial banks
refuse to roll over their loans. This might be due to regulatory rules and
procedures that limit a bank's "value at risk" (Cornelius, 1999). When prices fall
in a market, the value-at-risk models used by international banks can generate
the direct requirement that the bank reduce its exposure to that country
(Folkerts Landau and Garber, 1998.) Unless the borrower defaults when the
loans are not rolled over, this constitutes a capital out#ow. Even if the borrower
defaults, there will still be a reduction in new capital in#ow. The details of
value-at-risk models vary, but a bigger fall in asset prices, due to worse corporate
governance, can plausibly trigger a larger reduction in the bank's investment
position in all the assets of that country.