The economic principle behind a bundle is to separate technical risk (things clinicians can manage) from probability risks (thing outside their control), and transfer the former to clinicians and the latter to insurers. Perhaps one of the most important factors driving Duke׳s decision is the inherent variability of CHF; they believe separating technical from probability risks in CHFwould be very difficult. Duke expressed concern that efforts aimed at decreasing admissions for CHF might, in a bundled payment, create financial incentives that were misaligned with the goals of improving patient care. Namely, a shift in volumes to higher-acuity CHF inpatients might over-emphasize probability risks compared to prior years. BPCI episodes typically fall into one of two categories-medical and surgical. Surgical episodes, such as a knee replacement, can be easier to predict and have less variability among the care needed. Medical episodes, particularly chronic, complex conditions like CHF, have a much greater range in care needed- both inpatient and outpatient, which is a key reason the bundles have not gained widespread traction. The variation in care leads to extremely high cost cases, that create risk for BPCI participants, while also creating potential opportunties for savings through improvements in care delivery.
Duke׳s leadership in particular believed that a variety of complicating factors in its patient population could make any bundle for CHF too risky. One of the greatest strengths of a bundle is to provide predictability and standardization of care and costs. Due to the complexity of CHF, medical and support care is not systematically applied the same way to each patient. Further, CHF is not an isolated acute care episode with a clear beginning and end that lends itself to developing a fixed payment per episode. In addition to the MSSP, Duke did enroll in one BPCI pilot: percutaneous cardiac intervention (a procedure used to treat narrowed arteries in a patient׳s heart, known as PCI) instead of CHF. This was a way of “dipping a toe in the water” until better metrics and risk adjustment can be developed for CHF based on experience managing the PCI bundle. Unlike a bundle that is procedure oriented with a well-defined start and episode of care, the chronic nature of CHF as a disease made an index hospitalization less appealing as a trigger for a bundled payment. Duke was also unsure if the BPCI׳s required 30, 60, or 90-day bundle would be appropriate for CHF because they hoped to focus on care strategies, such as Heart@Home, that went beyond these time periods to determine the stability of a discharged CHF patient.
Due to the variety of unknown factors involved, Duke took a conservative approach. Known CHF costs were indexed in the inpatient setting. Yet, a large portion of costs and care was performed in outpatient settings. Such longitudinal, post-acute care is often performed in rehabilitation centers, community health centers, and skilled nursing facilities that Duke does not have control over care and costs. They also did not have enough evidence that their clinical interventions were effective in reducing CHF costs. Thus, they worried that a large investment of resources in new delivery models was unlikely to result in significant cost reduction that would reap savings in a bundled payment setting. In contrast, Duke׳s participation in the MSSP program will, in the long term, lead to investment in enhanced primary care services. This may lead to more fundamental delivery reform and potential investments in prevention and population health.