Several features of the crisis today, including its global nature and the large projected increases in government debt, could delay the start of deleveraging and result in
a longer period of debt reduction than in the past. In past episodes, a significant increase in net exports often helped support GDP growth during deleveraging.
But it is unlikely today that the most highly leveraged major economies could all simultaneously increase their net exports. Moreover, current projections of government debt in some countries, such as the United Kingdom, the United
States, and Spain, may offset reductions in debt by households and commercial real estate sectors. We therefore see a risk that the mature economies may remain highly leveraged for a prolonged period, which would create a fragile and potentially unstable economic outlook over the next five to ten years. They may then go through many years in which, all else being equal, GDP growth is slower than it would have been otherwise as debt is paid down.