MGRM negotiated most of its contracts in the summer of 1993. Its contracted
delivery prices reflected a premium of $3 to $5 per barrel over the
prevailing spot price of oil. As is evident in Figure 1, energy prices were relatively
low by recent historical standards during this period and were continuing
to fall. As long as oil prices kept falling, or at least did not rise appreciably,
MGRM stood to make a handsome profit from this marketing arrangement. But
a significant increase in energy prices could have exposed the firm to massive
losses unless it hedged its exposure.