inflation dynamics, which, as discussed in earlier WEO
reports, pose risks to activity where monetary policy is
constrained at the zero lower bound. Accommodative
monetary policy—including through unconventional
means—remains essential to prevent real interest rates
from rising, and the recent decision by the European
Central Bank to expand its asset purchase program
through sovereign asset purchases is welcome. A strong
case can be made for increased infrastructure investment in some advanced economies and for structural
economic reforms more generally. Priorities vary, but
many of these economies would benefit from reforms
to strengthen labor force participation and trend
employment, given aging populations, as well as measures to tackle private debt overhang.
The distribution of risks to global growth is now
more balanced relative to the October 2014 WEO, but
still tilted to the downside. A greater lift to demand
from oil prices is a significant upside risk. The most
salient downside risks identified in the October 2014
WEO remain relevant, however. Geopolitical tensions
could intensify, affecting major economies. Disruptive
asset price shifts in financial markets remain a concern.
Term and other risk premiums in bond markets are
still low in historical terms, and the context underlying
this asset price configuration—very accommodative
monetary policies in the major advanced economies—
is expected to start changing in 2015. Triggers for
turmoil include changing expectations about these
elements as well as unexpected portfolio shifts more
broadly. A further sharp dollar appreciation could trigger financial tensions elsewhere, particularly in emerging markets. Risks of stagnation and low inflation in
advanced economies are still present, notwithstanding
the recent upgrade to the near-term growth forecasts
for some of these economies.