Multiple specifications are used to account for conflict. For the diversionary
literature alone, conflict has been treated as ‘‘diplomatic rebuffs’’ (Collins 1973),
dispute initiation (Chiozza and Goemans 2003), ‘‘low-level uses of force’’ (Morgan
and Anderson 1999), and war (James 1987). Diehl (2006, 204) has hinted that
inconsistent findings in the diversionary literature could be due to the failure to
distinguish between dispute initiation and escalation, as some leaders wishing to
‘‘wag the dog’’ are not willing to pay the higher costs associated with war. Morgan
and Bickers (1992) have also suggested diversionary tactics should come short of
war, a sensible assumption given the negative consequences of casualties on public
opinion (Gartner and Segura 1998, 2000; Gartner 2008) and the potential to be
ousted due to military fiasco (Goemans 2000).