A modeling effort was conducted in order to investigate the potential of artificial neural network
methods, as tools for the achievement of the difficult task of the prediction of PM10 hourly
concentrations, 24-h in advance. This difficulty has been demonstrated in previous research
studies and is attributed to the complexity and diversity of the mechanisms governing the
determination of atmospheric particle levels, and to the necessity of using large datasets with a
high level of internal noise for the development of the models. However, the existence of such
predictions is essential for a large area as the metropolitan complex of Athens, for which PM10 is
a priority pollutant, with concentrations exceeding legislated standards in the majority of
measuring locations, and presenting significant diurnal variability with important implications for
public health.
MLP neural networks were constructed using a methodology already successfully implemented
for the prediction of daily average PM10 concentrations14 and a range of predictor variables
including a set of meteorological parameters, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by
authorities. Additional MLP models were trained on a reduced number of input variables, preselected
using a genetic algorithm based process. This was done in order to validate the
assumption that the reduced size of the training dataset would result at an improvement of the
generalization ability. Multiple linear regression was used as a method for the comparison of the
performance of the ANN models.
The results produced by the ANN models were rather satisfactory, for the two selected
measurement locations. The used performance indices point out a measurable improvement when