standing in the way of losses at almost every price level was the premium
that was collected up front, at the time the straddle was sold.
Exhibit 7.6 shows the profit-and-loss profile created when the short
straddle and a long futures position (see Exhibit 7.5) are combined. It is
similar to a short put, except that the downward-sloping portion of the profile
is even steeper than usual, because the long futures contract incurs
losses as the underlying asset’s price falls below the futures price, and the
short straddle incurs losses as the underlying asset’s price falls below the
strike price.
As you can well imagine, the combination of his short straddles and long
futures made it more difficult, but certainly not impossible, for Barings to
audit Leeson’s net exposures. Exhibit 7.6 shows that the gains from a short
put position are capped. By contrast, the potential losses could be enormous
if the asset price (e.g., the Nikkei 225 index) fell.
Combining a Long Futures Position and Numerous
Short Puts
The profit-and-loss profile from combining a short straddle and a long futures
position (see Exhibit 7.6) gives the illusion that Leeson had a viable
trading strategy, and he just guessed wrong in terms of the price movement.
Exhibit 7.6 shows a large span of prices to the right of the strike price,
which offer, at least, a glimmer of hope that profits could be earned. Unfortunately,
we will find that this was not the case. In fact, Barings would have
been lucky if Leeson had put the bank in such a position. The illusion is