A contrasting perspective on the challenge of reconciling
economic activity, social welfare, and the
needs of future generations was put forward by Donella
H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers,
and William W. Behrens, III, in their 1972 book,
The Limits to Growth.
4
Based on a dynamic simulation
model in which businesses and households make
myopic decisions without regard for the long-run implications
of short-run production and consumption,
Meadows et al. predicted that natural resource depletion
and environmental degradation would lead to an
irreversible collapse of the global economy by the early
twenty-first century. In this analysis, avoiding catastrophe
would be possible if and only if:
1. Human fertility was limited to the replacement
rate to stabilize population.
2. Natural resource use and pollution per unit of industrial output was cut by at least 75 percent.
3. Industrial production was stabilized at the level
prevailing in the late twentieth century.
4. Goods and services were redistributed from the
rich to the poor to provide a high quality of life for
all members of the global community