Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn officially opened the junta's fake parliament, the National Legislative Assembly, today. Several people have asked me whether the fact Vajiralongkorn presided at this event shows that some kind of deal has been reached in the royal succession struggle. The answer is no.
Thailand's game of thrones has to be played in the shadows, until the final phase following Bhumibol's death. The junta and royalist elite have to pretend they support Vajiralongkorn as the future King Rama X, and Vajiralongkorn has to pretend he believes them. Any clumsy premature move by either side would be disastrous for them. And so, the game is played in secret for now.
Vajiralongkorn made a point of ensuring he was outside Thailand when the coup took place. But he has to return to Thailand sometimes for important duties, such as changing the robes of the Emerald Buddha, or inaugurating the NLA. If he failed to fulfil these duties, it would weaken his position in the succession conflict.
But make no mistake — the elite are determined to stop Vajiralongkorn becoming king, and the war of succession that has been raging since 2005 is far from over.