Regulations are a factor as well. New rules will increase capital requirements and cost the average bank 2.5-3.5 percent in pretax RoE. A grim economic outlook for the next few years—with the Federal Reserve aiming to keep benchmark interest rates at historically low levels—will prolong the industry’s current headwinds. New entrants, once regulated, may not survive if they fail to price for the impact of regulations early. And consolidation will continue to play out
between now and 2020, by which point we estimate that 15 to 25 percent of today’s roughly 7,000 North American financial institutions could be gone.