Don, comparing 60-count prices is not really indicative of the entire situation because 95% of farmers in Thailand are growing 100-count shrimp and having a hard time producing anything larger than that.
On April 9, 2015, 100-count shrimp were at $3.07 kilo, a 15% drop in two days. Yes, we should not look at two-day prices, but my point is that market prices are below production cost. Farmers are out of cash due to EMS losses. Over the last two years, farmers could make some money with 10-gram shrimp. EMS is not just about mortality. Growth is down; the feed conversion ratio is up, so costs are up. I am saying that these low prices are coming at a critical time, and I think many Thai farmers will go bankrupt if they stock now. Farmers who stocked early this year will be rewarded with a loss when they sell their product.
Farmers will have to adapt and pay attention to production costs as we go through this crisis, and I will say many farmers will not make it unless prices firm up within the next month or so. Buyers who play the waiting game, hoping that prices will continue to fall, are playing a dangerous game because that could cause a semi-permanent loss of production.
I don’t understand where all the “over-supply” is coming from. Vietnam’s production numbers are distorted by imports from Ecuador and India, and I doubt if either of them will be able to maintain their production levels. Thailand, Malaysia and China are continuing to struggle and diseases are spreading both in Asia and possibly in Latin America.