Looking down the road, there is a real possibility of a crisis, in which
the overall industry underinvests in the basic research needed to continue
the progress predicted by Moore’s Law. Moore’s Law is not an
iron-clad law; rather, it is an empirical result of technological advance
that requires new fundamental technologies to arise fairly often, in
order to realize the regular improvements predicted by the law. If the
industry reduces its investment in basic research and shifts its public
research dollars away from semiconductors and materials science, then
the pool of available research to support the long-term growth of the
industry will likely diminish. That, in turn, could slow down the industry’s
(and Intel’s) ability to follow Moore’s Law.
Looking down the road, there is a real possibility of a crisis, in which
the overall industry underinvests in the basic research needed to continue
the progress predicted by Moore’s Law. Moore’s Law is not an
iron-clad law; rather, it is an empirical result of technological advance
that requires new fundamental technologies to arise fairly often, in
order to realize the regular improvements predicted by the law. If the
industry reduces its investment in basic research and shifts its public
research dollars away from semiconductors and materials science, then
the pool of available research to support the long-term growth of the
industry will likely diminish. That, in turn, could slow down the industry’s
(and Intel’s) ability to follow Moore’s Law.
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