With Australia and Japan growing only at rates comparable to other developed markets, the lion’s share of Asia’s new CIB revenues will come from the “growing giants,” China and India. At 50 percent of Asia’s CIB revenues, China is already the region’s largest wholesale banking market and will only become more important. Even without adjusting for potential appreciation in the renminbi, McKinsey expects that China’s new CIB revenues will become at least as large as those of the U.S. or Europe. Should China’s real GDP
keep rising by an average annual rate of 9 percent, as several economists predict, the resulting increase in loan volumes will account for over 55 percent of Asia’s revenue growth. Likewise, increasing client demand for sophisticated products will drive capital markets expansion. Yet new policies to tighten credit will temper the surge in revenues experienced in 2009 and 2010.