from the single event or fact to a conclusion or generalization based on that event or fact. Inductive reasoning allows one to conclude that the fact of a painted wall means that there was a painter. Deductive reasoning uses the facts of related or similar events to reach a conclusion. Deductive reasoning is employed in a criminal prosecution when circumstantial evidence is used to prove the defendant’s guilt, despite lack of direct evidence such as fingerprints or the testimony of a witness. Circumstantial evidence is based on inferences (deductions) that are drawn from facts. A deduction from finding room after room with half painted walls is that the work of the painter(s) is undone.
Often, problem solvers and decision makers have the need to consider what weight, if any, to give to information that is hearsay, rumor, or assertion. “Hearsay” refers to words attributed to a third party. With few exceptions, hearsay is inadmissible in court proceedings. Similarly, decision makers should identify hearsay and give it little or no weight. Rumors abound in all organizations; many of them come to the notice of decision makers. They, too, should be given little weight. Assertions may be based on fact, hearsay, or rumor. Assertions may also be called judgments or conclusions. Assertions may be stated forcefully and with a degree of authority that seems to give them credibility. They must be accepted with caution.
Hearsay and rumor may have elements of truth. This makes them important to the extent that they suggest potential problems that warrant further investigation. In themselves, hearsay and rumor are never the basis for action or decision making. Persons who make assertions should be asked how the assertions are supported by facts. In the absence of facts, assertions should be given little or no weight
Developing Assumptions [2] The problem statement developed in the problem analysis [1] allows the next step, developing assumptions [2]. Assumptions never supersede facts. When facts are insufficient, however, problem solvers use inductive and deductive reasoning to make assumptions. Only in the most unusual circumstances should problem solvers make assumptions that are unsupported by facts or logic because doing so means that the assumptions were chosen capriciously, which is not a basis for good management. Assumptions extend what is