Experts are narrowly focused persons who need to “tunnel," When [the prediction experts] were right, they attributed it to their own depth of understanding and expertise; when wrong) it was either the situation that was to blame, since it was unusual) or, worse, they did not recognize they were wrong and spun stories around it. They found it difficult to accept that their grasp was a little short,
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Sv:tm