In football, if a team is in a certain situation, what happened previously has no effect on what will happen next."
Could you make the argument that for a team that relies heavily on a running offense, an injury (major or minor) to its primary RB on the previous play could result in an increased probability of a passing play?
For this situation, for example, I would interpret the states as P=0.8 for S_1 (a passing play) to occur, and P=0.2 (a running play) to occur.
I guess the counterargument would be that the different states are defined only in terms of yardage gains or losses, in which case something like an injury could have negligible effect on the probability