A comparison of the actual results to those hypothesized in Chincarini [2006, 2007] is quite promising for the scientific method. The actual positions and the hypothesized positions were quite similar and the basic conclusions of the mismanage- ment and risks posed by Amaranth were iden- tical. Amaranth had taken extremely large positions in the natural gas futures market through the NYMEX and ICE exchanges. Its basic trade was a trade that mainly purchased winter natural gas futures contracts, while simultaneously shorting non-winter natural gas futures months, betting that in September, natural gas futures prices for winter months would increase relatively more than those of non-winter months.