Malaria claims 1 to 2 million lives annually, most of which are those of children.
In Africa, distribution of the disease is largely limited by climate, except at the southern limit.
In many parts of the world, effective public health systems ensure that malaria transmission remains well within the climatic limits of its distribution.
There are different approaches to modeling malaria risk with climate change including biological models building from known disease transmission dynamics and statistical empirical approaches based on malaria's current epidemiology.
A study using a biological model suggested, based on specific climate scenarios, that there might be a global increase of 260 to 320 million people in 2080 living in a potential transmission zone, against a baseline population expectation of about 8 billion