This paper aims to evaluate the performance of the ARIMA model to predict the time series of the Bovespa
Index, measured by MAPE (mean absolute error percentage) and compare it with other models. Historical data
of monthly Bovespa quotations from January 1995 to January 2013 were used. The models were used to compare
Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing.
This paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, a review of forecasting is presented. In Section 3, the research
method is shown. In Section 4, analysis of historical data of the Bovespa Index, data transformation, the
necessary adjustments and calculation of MAPE values are all examined based on the results found. Section 5
contains the conclusions of the study.