Regression toward the mean: Statistical regression, or regression toward
the mean, refers to the tendency for extreme scores on any measurement
to move toward the mean (regress) when the measurement procedure is
repeated. Individuals who score extremely high on a measure during
the first testing are likely to score lower on the second testing, and,
conversely, individuals who score extremely low on a measure during
the first testing are likely to score higher on the second testing.
Statistical regression occurs because an individual’s score is a function
both of stable factors such as skill and of unstable factors such as
chance. Although the stable factors remain constant from one measurement
to another, the unstable factors can change substantially. Your
grade on an exam, for example, is based on a combination of knowledge
and luck. Some of the answers you really know, others you guess. The
student who gets the highest score on the first exam probably combines
knowledge and good luck. On the second exam, this student’s knowledge
is still there, but luck is likely to change; thus, the student will probably
score lower on the second exam. This is regression toward the mean.
Regression toward the mean: Statistical regression, or regression towardthe mean, refers to the tendency for extreme scores on any measurementto move toward the mean (regress) when the measurement procedure isrepeated. Individuals who score extremely high on a measure duringthe first testing are likely to score lower on the second testing, and,conversely, individuals who score extremely low on a measure duringthe first testing are likely to score higher on the second testing.Statistical regression occurs because an individual’s score is a functionboth of stable factors such as skill and of unstable factors such aschance. Although the stable factors remain constant from one measurementto another, the unstable factors can change substantially. Yourgrade on an exam, for example, is based on a combination of knowledgeand luck. Some of the answers you really know, others you guess. Thestudent who gets the highest score on the first exam probably combinesknowledge and good luck. On the second exam, this student’s knowledgeis still there, but luck is likely to change; thus, the student will probablyscore lower on the second exam. This is regression toward the mean.
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