Flexibility. Norwood was also aware that choosing a target debt level based on an analy- sis of industry peers might not fully capture the flexibility Polaroid would need to meet its own possible future adversities. Norwood said :
Flexibility is how much debt you can issue before you lose the investment - grade bond rating. I want flexibility , and yet I want to take advantage of the fact that with more debt, you have lower cost capital. I am very comfortable with our strategy and internal financial forests for our business; if anything, I believe the forecasts probably underestimate, rather than overestimate, our cash flow . But let's suppose that a two - sigma adverse outcome would be an EBIT equal to $150 million - I can' t imagine in the worst of times an EBIT less than that.
Accordingly Norwood's final decision on the target bond rating would have to be one that maintained reasonable reserves against Polaroid ' s worst- case scenario.
Cost of Capital. Consistent with management ' s emphasis on value creation, Norwood believed that choosing a financial policy that minimized the cost of capital was important. He understood that exploitation of debt tax shields could create value for shareholders - to a reasonable limit - and that beyond the limit, costs of financial distress would become material and cause the cost of capital to rise. One investment bank , Hodson Guaranty, presented Norwood with estimates of the pretax cost of debt and cost of equity by averaging gory. These estimates are given in Exhibit 11. The cost of debt was estimated by averaging the current yield - to maturity of
bonds within each bond - rating category. Norwood remarked on the relatively flat trend in the cost of equity within the investment - grade range. Hodson Guaranty replied that " changes" in leverage within the investment - grads range are not regarded as material to investors. " It remained for Norwood to determine which rating category provided the lowest costs of capital.
Current Capital Market Conditions. Any policy recommendations would need to acknowledge the feasibility of implementing those policies today as well as in the future. Exhibit 12 presents information about current yields in the U. S. economy continued in its fifth year of economic expansion. The equity markets seemed to be pausing after a phenomenal advance in prices in 1995. The outlook for interest rates was stable, though any sign of inflation might case the Federal Reserve Board to lift interest rates. Major changes in taxes and regulations were in abeyance, at least until the outcome of the presidential elections to be held in November 1996.