3.2.7 Identification of main external factors
The selection of the main external factors is a result of an internal interactive workshop by experts of the Lot 1 consortium, where all external factors have been allocated and assessed in respect of their impact for the logistic sector, as well as the probability of occurrence, and complemented by result of the questionnaire. Therefore the following eight external factors were selected to be further assessed according to their impacts for transport and logistics, as well as their economic, social and environmental effects:
Ageing society;
Transport infrastructure development;
Proliferation of electronic business;
Information and communication technologies (ICT);
Supply chain resilience;
Fossil fuel scarcity;
Energy costs;
Raw material scarcity.
3.3 Identification of logistic strategies and trends
Logistic trends do not emerge on their own terms, but are, in most cases, a reaction to constant changes to the external factors and requirements of the customers. These kinds of reactions can be called “logistic strategies”.
Hence, a logistic strategy is a procedure, activity field or change of intensity of any relevance for transport and production logistics, which is a reaction to the change of one or more external factors. As the external environment is continuously changing, logistic activities (= business strategies) also have to continuously develop.
A logistic strategy states a reaction to an external change and thus will turn into a logistic trend if a logistic strategy is used permanently and widely.
Based on the result of the data research and subsequent to the identification of external factors, the study identifies the most important current, emerging and future strategies and trends in logistics and supply chain management. Within this stage of work it is crucial not only to identify the potential strategies, but to reveal and discuss the underlying assumptions and reasons behind them, in order to gather an in-depth and sufficient picture of correlations and impacts.
With the aim of elaborating contrasting, but – simultaneously comparable – scenarios, the consortium proposes a systematic approach that, as a first step, classifies the various types of logistic strategies into three major categories (see definitions in the box further down):
1. Technical and physical structure strategies;
2. Organisational and administrative strategies;
3. Information and technology strategies.
Several strategies and trends related to the supply chain physical structure, organisation and product/information flows, which will be used in the subsequent analysis, have been identified in foresight studies within the framework of earlier research projects and desk research (e.g. BE-Logic (2009), LogMan (2011) and BVL (2013).