The authors examined the differential effects of prior academic achievement, psychosocial, behavioral,
demographic, and school context factors on early high school grade point average (GPA) using a
prospective study of 4,660 middle-school students from 24 schools. The findings suggest that (a) prior
grades and standardized achievement are the strongest predictors of high school GPA and (b) psychosocial
and behavioral factors (e.g., motivation, self-regulation, and social control) add incremental
validity to the prediction of GPA. When comparing the relative importance of each set of predictors (the
dominance analysis technique), the variance accounted for by psychosocial and behavioral factors is
comparable to that accounted for by prior grades. These findings highlight the importance of effective
risk assessment based on multiple measures (i.e., academic, psychosocial, and behavioral) for the purpose
of identifying risk, referring students to intervention, and improving academic success.
The authors examined the differential effects of prior academic achievement, psychosocial, behavioral,demographic, and school context factors on early high school grade point average (GPA) using aprospective study of 4,660 middle-school students from 24 schools. The findings suggest that (a) priorgrades and standardized achievement are the strongest predictors of high school GPA and (b) psychosocialand behavioral factors (e.g., motivation, self-regulation, and social control) add incrementalvalidity to the prediction of GPA. When comparing the relative importance of each set of predictors (thedominance analysis technique), the variance accounted for by psychosocial and behavioral factors iscomparable to that accounted for by prior grades. These findings highlight the importance of effectiverisk assessment based on multiple measures (i.e., academic, psychosocial, and behavioral) for the purposeof identifying risk, referring students to intervention, and improving academic success.
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