today by policy measures and a change in values. The most
important change in this study is that the trend of increasing
waste amounts is broken and a decoupling effect (i.e. the waste
amounts are no longer increasing at the same rate as economic
growth) is present. This effect means that waste amounts
follows the population trend in the region. This scenario also
captures savings in energy use and more ambitious environmental
targets which in turn affect the results of the system
study. The magnitude of the economic growth is assumed to be
on the same level as in the reference scenario.
- Material intense growth: this scenario is characterized by an
economic growth in society which exceeds the one in the other
external scenarios, and a continuously increased consumption
of material based products resulting in a higher growth rate for
waste amounts than for the economy. This external scenario
should not be looked upon as an opposite of material lean
growth, also in this scenario there are assumptions on
a development where the society is directed towards
a decreased environmental impact.
A vast number of parameters have been studied and varied in
the different external scenarios. A vital part that has been kept
constant is however the tax system. Present levels of taxes on
petrol, diesel, and natural gas to CHP etc. are used also in 2030. In
reality these will probably change several times during the period
to 2030. These changes are however very hard to predict, thus this
conservative assumption.
3. Results