Growing attention is being paid to the potential for preventing incident depression. One
approach is to intervene in patient subgroups at extremely high risk for depression (e.g., as a
result of a particular medical illness or its therapy). However, to have a broader impact, it is
important to identify patients who are at high risk for depression from among larger, more
heterogeneous populations. Study of new-onset depression in community dwelling elderly in
the Netherlands has demonstrated the potential cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions
for depression based on favorable indices of the potential health gains in focusing on those
with depressive symptoms, functional deficits, and a small social network size (8).
Additional risks were female gender, low education, and chronic medical disease burden. In
another Netherlands cohort comprising noninstitutionalized elderly registered with a primary
care provider, similar analyses led to the conclusion that preventive interventions should
focus on those with subsyndromal depression (9). Although ground-breaking, the former
study did not include any measure for categorical diagnosis of depression, relying on a selfreport
depressive symptom scale, and the latter, although it did use a measure for categorical
diagnosis of depression analogous to that of DSM-IV, did not assess a range of other
putative clinical and psychosocial risks for depression onset. In addition, neither study
recruited subjects directly from primary care, an important setting for future broadly targeted
preventive interventions because most older persons with clinically significant depressive
symptoms do not seek mental health specialty care but do see primary care providers (10).
Accordingly, we sought to examine predictors of incident major depressive episodes in a
cohort of older primary care patients well-characterized with regard to major, minor, and
subsyndromal depression, along with a broad range of clinical, functional, and psychosocial
variables that have conferred risk for depression outcome in prior work. By examining
several epidemiological indicators of health effect in this cohort, we planned to identify the
high-risk groups for which depression prevention would likely yield the greatest health
benefit at the lowest cost.
Growing attention is being paid to the potential for preventing incident depression. Oneapproach is to intervene in patient subgroups at extremely high risk for depression (e.g., as aresult of a particular medical illness or its therapy). However, to have a broader impact, it isimportant to identify patients who are at high risk for depression from among larger, moreheterogeneous populations. Study of new-onset depression in community dwelling elderly inthe Netherlands has demonstrated the potential cost-effectiveness of preventive interventionsfor depression based on favorable indices of the potential health gains in focusing on thosewith depressive symptoms, functional deficits, and a small social network size (8).Additional risks were female gender, low education, and chronic medical disease burden. Inanother Netherlands cohort comprising noninstitutionalized elderly registered with a primarycare provider, similar analyses led to the conclusion that preventive interventions shouldfocus on those with subsyndromal depression (9). Although ground-breaking, the formerstudy did not include any measure for categorical diagnosis of depression, relying on a selfreportdepressive symptom scale, and the latter, although it did use a measure for categoricaldiagnosis of depression analogous to that of DSM-IV, did not assess a range of otherputative clinical and psychosocial risks for depression onset. In addition, neither studyrecruited subjects directly from primary care, an important setting for future broadly targetedpreventive interventions because most older persons with clinically significant depressivesymptoms do not seek mental health specialty care but do see primary care providers (10).Accordingly, we sought to examine predictors of incident major depressive episodes in acohort of older primary care patients well-characterized with regard to major, minor, andsubsyndromal depression, along with a broad range of clinical, functional, and psychosocialvariables that have conferred risk for depression outcome in prior work. By examiningseveral epidemiological indicators of health effect in this cohort, we planned to identify thehigh-risk groups for which depression prevention would likely yield the greatest healthbenefit at the lowest cost.
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