the 1990s will be different. In most of the big OECD countries the total workforce will continue to grow, but there will be a shortage of your, skilled workers. A return to the mass-union power of the 1970s looks unlikely. But the shortage of younger workers will mean that companies in America, Japan and Europe will have to find new ways to attract, develop, motivate, reward and retain employees.
The "demographic time bomb" may be well hidden. For a start a small recession in the early 1990s, should it come, will lengthen dole queues again. But unless the world economy goes badly wrong, the labour shortage is sure to worsen in the 1990s. Consider:
4. America’s workforce will grow by only 15.9m(1.2% a year) in the 1990s compared with 22.2m(2.6% a year) in the 1970s and 18.3m in the 1980s(1.6%).There will be an absolute fall in the number of people aged between 16 and 24, while the proportion(比例) of American workers over 35 will rise from 39% today to 49% by 2000.
5. The population of the European Community will stay at around 325m(assuming no additions to its 12 member countries). But there will be many fewer young people, and many more over 65s. Ireland apart, all the EC(欧共体) countries will have fewer young workers. The number of unde-25s in France’s and Britain’s labour forces will decline(下降) by around 2% a year until the turn of the century(世纪之交); in West Germany it will decline by 3.6% a year. East German immigrants(移民) may help, but only a bit: East Germany also has a shortage of young people.
6. Japan’s population will grow slightly(轻微地) in the 1990s.But the proportion(比例) of pensioners(领年金的人,白领) will rise from 11% to 15% of the population. The number of under-25s in the workforce will decline by 2% each year. The Japanese practice of(有….的习惯) paying by seniority(资历) rather than merit(价值) means that an aging labour force guarantees(保证) a steady rise in labour costs. That is one reason for Japan’s current investment boom(当前投资高涨): manufacturers know they have to replace workers with more machines.