2.1.The risk of transportation
The risk is the essential part of the choice such as where Markowitz (1952) uses mean variance framework to calculate the relationship between beliefs and choice of invest- ment portfolio according to the ‘‘expected returns and variance of returns’’ rule. Choi and Chow (2008) illustrate how to quantify the payoff and the risk for each channel member in the supply chain by the corresponding expected profit and variance of profit. In this research the risk of route is from the viewpoint of qualitative factor. According to Banomyong and Beresford (2001), the routing risk is of significant uncertainty for a decision situation depending on the cost once a commitment is made. When high uncertainty is coupled with high cost, the uncertainty needs to be acknowl- edged. Risk means both uncertainty and the results of uncer- tainty. Risk analysis consists of 2 stages: risk identification and risk assessment.