For upgrades, the bond market reaction is significantly more positive if the firm’s (15, 1) bond CAR is negative or zero, which is consistent with such upgrades being more surprising. There is
weak evidence that the reaction is more positive if preceded by a credit watch listing. In specification 7, the dummy that equals one for a credit watch listing prior to the rating change and zero otherwise is positive and significant at the 10% level. It is not significant,however, in specification 10. In addition, there is evidence that S&P and, to a lesser extent, Moody’s upgrades result in a more positive reaction than Fitch upgrades. In specification 8, the Moody’s
dummy is positive and significant at the 10% level but is not in specification 10, which constitutes only weak evidence.
S&P dummy is positive and significant at the 5% level in specifications
8 and 10, indicating that the reaction to an S&P upgrade is
significantly stronger than the reaction to a Fitch upgrade. The
reaction to S&P and Moody’s upgrades are not significantly different
on average, as the untabulated difference between the S&P and
Moody’s dummy coefficients is insignificant in all specifications.