LUCF
Net CO2 emissions from LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry, sometimes called LUCF for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) in principle cover a wide range of land management activities, including changes in agricultural and forestry management practices; as a practical matter, it is dominated by deforestation in tropical countries and reforestation in developed countries (which were largely deforested in previous centuries). Projections of future changes in forest cover are perhaps even more speculative than changes in industrial activity; it has been commonplace to assume – counter to recent history – that even in “no climate policy” scenarios (such as the SRES scenarios), non-climate (e.g., biodiversity) concerns could and would drive a rapid global reduction in LUCF emissions. Indeed, many countries have policies on the books to either reduce deforestation or increase reforestation. However, unlike for energy emissions, there are no organizations like the IEA (or the IMF for GDP) whose job it is to provide regular global forecasts. As a matter of parsimony, then, we assume that LUCF emissions remain constant after 2012 up to 2030 at the global and national level.