The AEC project has been crucial for moving ASEAN from its beginnings as a political grouping in 1967 to becoming one of the most dynamic regional economic blocs in the developing world. The solidarity and enthusiasm shown by ASEAN members in trying to meet the AEC goals are notable. Visible progress has been achieved in implementing the first pillar (particularly in reducing tariffs for goods trade and implementing single windows for better trade facilitation) and the fourth pillar (in signing regional FTAs for improved trade rules). However, it seems likely that the December 2015 deadline for realizing all four pillars of the AEC will be missed. The AEC project will remain a work in progress for the foreseeable future.
Rather than playing a blame game as to why the deadline will be missed, it will be useful to do three things during Malaysia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2015: First, ASEAN members should undertake a quick and dirty but honest stocktaking exercise of achievements under the AEC project and a short report should be published by the ASEAN Secretariat. Second, ASEAN members should focus on a few important next steps for the AEC project and get them done in a reasonable time frame, say by 2020. In this vein, reducing restrictions on trade in services and monitoring NTMs are priorities under the first pillar. Financing and implementing a few key infrastructure projects to reduce development gaps between richer and poorer ASEAN economies is important under the third pillar. Third, ASEAN members should give serious consideration to increasing the capacity of the ASEAN Secretariat. A reasonable increase in the ASEAN Secretariat’s budget and technical skills seems warranted to support effective implementation of the AEC agenda. While the AEC project may take longer than originally envisaged, with sustained cooperation and commitment among ASEAN economies it will not remain impossible.