The principal difference between (A) and (D) is not verb tense but "verb number", i.e., singular or plural. We need to look at the subject:
"Although a surge in retail sales have raised hopes that there is a recovery finally under way
Notice that "in retails sales" is a prepositional phrase, so the only noun that can serve as the subject is "surge" ----> singular. This requires a singular verb:
(A) a surge . . . have raised :(
(D) a surge . . . has raised :)
Choice D has the right tense and the right number, so it's the correct choice.
Does this make sense? Did I answer your question? Please let me know if you have any further questions about what I've said here.