Prem masterminded a military coup in 2006 that was largely aimed at undermining Vajiralongkorn’s succession prospects and sabotaging his ties with Thaksin. His influence began to wane as it became clear that the coup was a debacle that had caused irreparable damage to the image of the monarchy. In recent years he was regarded as a mostly spent force, with Prawit Wongsuwan becoming the most powerful royalist military godfather pulling strings from behind the scenes. But Prem, Anand and other senior royalists remained implacably hostile to the crown prince, as a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable from 2010 showed.
Despite his advanced age, Prem has staged a remarkable comeback in recent months. During August and September he managed to convince Prayuth to allow the appointment of Chalermchai Sittisart — a general loyal to Prem — to the crucial strategic position of army chief. As I wrote in a previous note on royal succession last week: “The logic of putting General Chalermchai Sittisart in this position was to try to placate Prem and his allies, as well as military factions resentful of the Eastern Tigers, and prevent a counter-coup during the royal succession process. Vajiralongkorn was persuaded to enter into an uneasy alliance with his old enemy. If Prem still secretly intends to try to launch a succession surprise, however, the appointment of his ally as army chief gives him control of a strategically crucial position.”
Now it seems Prem has indeed launched his suprise. As Bhumibol’s health dramatically deteriorated last week, Prem and his sidekick Surayud Chulanont sought to force the crown prince to accept some kind of compromise. According to multiple sources, the reason that Prayuth cut short a visit to Chonburi and rushed back to Bangkok last Wednesday was for a tense meeting with Prem and Vajiralongkorn, who had just returned from Munich and landed at Suvarnabhumi Airport at 12:30 p.m. on Thai Airways flight TG923 from Frankfurt.
Prem was still pushing for Crown Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn to be named the next monarch, but this was rejected by Vanjiralongkorn and Prayuth. Prem then proposed that the crown prince’s eldest daughter Princess Bajrakitiyabha be named monarch. Again, this was rejected. The standoff remains unresolved, and this is why the junta announced that Vajiralongkorn wants to delay becoming king — negotiations are continuing. It is telling that Vajiralongkorn has said nothing publicly, with Prayuth claiming to be speaking on his behalf.
Prem’s position as regent and significant influence over the army have given him some leverage, but he is pursuing an exceptionally risky strategy. According to several sources it appears extremely unlikely that he can prevent Vajiralongkorn becoming king, and negotiations are now focusing on the possibility of reviving the old position of uparaja, or deputy monarch. Prem wants Sirindhorn to be uparaja, to act as a curb on Vajiralongkorn. The crown prince has countered with a suggestion that his elder sister Ubolratana be deputy monarch. As of now, the negotiations remain deadlocked and Thailand has no king.
The contested succession may end up doing even more damage to the monarchy, at a time when many Thais are questioning whether the palace has any worthwhile role in post-Bhumibol Thailand.
เปรม masterminded ประหารในปี 2549 ที่ส่วนใหญ่มุ่งทำร้ายลูกค้าสืบราชฯ และ sabotaging ความสัมพันธ์ของเขากับทักษิณ อิทธิพลของเขาเริ่มที่จะจางหายเป็นที่ประหาร debacle ที่ได้เกิดความเสียหายทำให้ภาพของพระมหากษัตริย์ ในปี ที่เขาถูกถือว่าเป็นแรงใช้เวลาส่วนใหญ่ กับประวิทย์ศราวงศ์สุวรรณเป็นทรงพลังที่สุด royalist ทหารเจ้าพ่อเส้นจากหลังฉาก แต่เปรม อานันท์ และ royalists อาวุโสอื่น ๆ ยังคง implacably สู้กับมกุฎ เป็นสายทูตสหรัฐฯ รั่วจาก 2010 แสดงให้เห็นว่าแม้อายุของเขา เปรมมีฉากกลับมาโดดเด่นในช่วงเดือน ในช่วงเดือนสิงหาคมและกันยายน ที่เขาพยายามจะโน้มน้าวให้ประยุทธ์ให้นัดหมายของเฉลิมชัย Sittisart — ทั่วไปความภักดีต่อเปรม — กับตำแหน่งเชิงกลยุทธ์สำคัญของหัวหน้ากองทัพ ขณะที่ผมเขียนในบันทึกก่อนหน้านี้บนสันตติวงศ์สัปดาห์: "ตรรกะของการวางทั่วไปเฉลิมชัย Sittisart ในตำแหน่งนี้ก็เพื่อ พยายามปลอบโยนเปรม และเขาพันธมิตร รวมทั้งทหารฝ่ายวิญญาณของเสือตะวันออก และป้องกันการรัฐประหารคัดค้านในระหว่างกระบวนการรุ่งเรือง วชิราลงกรณ์ถูกเกลี้ยกล่อมให้เข้าเป็นพันธมิตรที่ไม่สบายใจกับศัตรูเก่าของเขา ถ้าเปรมยังคงแอบตั้งใจที่จะพยายามเปิดประหลาดสืบ อย่างไรก็ตาม การนัดหมายของพันธมิตรของเขาเป็นหัวหน้ากองทัพช่วยให้เขาควบคุมตำแหน่งกลยุทธ์สำคัญ"Now it seems Prem has indeed launched his suprise. As Bhumibol’s health dramatically deteriorated last week, Prem and his sidekick Surayud Chulanont sought to force the crown prince to accept some kind of compromise. According to multiple sources, the reason that Prayuth cut short a visit to Chonburi and rushed back to Bangkok last Wednesday was for a tense meeting with Prem and Vajiralongkorn, who had just returned from Munich and landed at Suvarnabhumi Airport at 12:30 p.m. on Thai Airways flight TG923 from Frankfurt. Prem was still pushing for Crown Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn to be named the next monarch, but this was rejected by Vanjiralongkorn and Prayuth. Prem then proposed that the crown prince’s eldest daughter Princess Bajrakitiyabha be named monarch. Again, this was rejected. The standoff remains unresolved, and this is why the junta announced that Vajiralongkorn wants to delay becoming king — negotiations are continuing. It is telling that Vajiralongkorn has said nothing publicly, with Prayuth claiming to be speaking on his behalf.Prem’s position as regent and significant influence over the army have given him some leverage, but he is pursuing an exceptionally risky strategy. According to several sources it appears extremely unlikely that he can prevent Vajiralongkorn becoming king, and negotiations are now focusing on the possibility of reviving the old position of uparaja, or deputy monarch. Prem wants Sirindhorn to be uparaja, to act as a curb on Vajiralongkorn. The crown prince has countered with a suggestion that his elder sister Ubolratana be deputy monarch. As of now, the negotiations remain deadlocked and Thailand has no king.The contested succession may end up doing even more damage to the monarchy, at a time when many Thais are questioning whether the palace has any worthwhile role in post-Bhumibol Thailand.
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