6 Thinking About Policy Choices
~-j5. Making a Choice. Drawing all aspects of the analysis together, what is the preferred course of action?
We do not mean to imply that an analyst will always proceed in an orderly fashion from one stage of the analysis to the next. Real people¬even those who are models of administrative efficiency-can rarely operate so neatly, nor should they try to. But we do insist that each of these five critical areas must be dealt with. The conduct of an analysis will usually tum out in practice to be an iterative process, with the analyst working back and forth among the tasks of identifying problems, defining objec- -i
1
tives, enumerating possible alternatives, predicting outcomes, establishing
criteria, and valuing tradeoffs, to refine the analysis. This is an entirely J sensible approach. We claim only that it is easier to keep track of where you are in this iterative process, and to avoid going around in circles (a disease with which even the best analysts are occasionally afflicted), if you keep in mind a basic framework to which every aspect of the analysis must be related. Furthermore, the consumers of your analysis will thank you, for strict adherence to a clearly visible structure makes for far easier reading and comprehension, and opens up the analysis for evaluation and debate.
We believe you will also find the outline useful as a background for the ; rest of this book, to help tie together the-wide array of methods and Ii concepts that are considered. Thezechniques described in the following V I chapters are all aimed at enabling usio pfdde.better answeJ~tQ