Expecting solid earnings recovery
After struggling for many years, IEC is set to recover in both the
renewable energy business and the new recycled plastic business. We
conservatively forecast net profit of Bt165mn and Bt515mn in 16E and
17E, which means EPS growth of 1,320% and 213%. We assign an
Outperform rating on the stock as our 16E fair valuation suggests upside
of around 8%, 47% higher than the RO price at Bt0.022/share.
GIDEC to go full steam this year
GIDEC has been through a state‐of‐the‐art technology improvement and
is expected to operate at an efficient level this year. The waste feeding
line has been improved so that MSW is converted into RDF before
feeding into the furnace. The gasification system has also been improved
to decrease pollution to an eco‐friendly level. A small gasification system
with capacity of 500kW will be installed to enhance its capacity. We
expect GIDEC to generate Bt25mn and Bt90mn to IEC’s bottom line in
16E and 17E.
SK1 started operations after a long overhaul
After a long overhaul for system improvement, a biomass power plant in
Sakaeo “SK1” will start operations in 1Q16. We expect that its utilization
will stay around 50% this year before going up to 85% next year. SK1
should contribute around Bt11.5mn and Bt41mn to net profit in 16E and
17E.
Kick‐starting recycled plastic plant...a high‐margin business
IEC will kick‐start its recycled plastic plant in Rayong. The plant now
consists of six production lines, which can produce around 120 tons of
plastic pellets per day. IEC targets to add another 12 lines – nine at the
same plant and three in Songkhla. This business will help boost IEC’s net
profit this year and next as it has a very high margin. Management
expects a net profit margin of around 30% to 50%.
Potential upside from biogas
IEC is planning to start an Integrated Gas Hub and is working this out with
some listed energy companies. It targets to develop biogas plants in
several provinces and is now in the process of acquiring the first plant in
Kamphangphaet. We have not included this business in our projections
and TP and leave it as potential upside in the future.