On the other hand, the exchange rate and risk premia fluctuations were far smaller
than in the past. In the second half of 2008, the Turkish lira depreciated by around 15% in
effective terms, whereas in the past crises depreciation was on average around 35%. In the
course of 2009, the lira broadly stabilised against the euro and appreciated somewhat
against the US dollar. The volatility of the Turkish lira also declined relative to other
emerging markets (CBRT, 2010). Limited nominal exchange rate changes and significantly
lower inflation resulted in a much stronger real effective exchange rate compared with the
previous recessions. Risk premia in Turkey increased in autumn 2008 as in other emerging
markets (Figure 1.5), but since then they have substantially declined to roughly the precrisis
level (Chapter 2). At the end of 2009, they were relatively low compared with some
emerging markets, especially in Central and Eastern Europe (IMF, 2009). The moderate
fluctuations in financial indicators, as compared with the previous crises and also relative
to other emerging markets, can be explained by two factors. First, the macroeconomic
position, including the financial sector and public finances, was sounder and the policy
framework was more credible, making a swift implementation of counter-cyclical policies
possible. This was a truly novel experience compared with the previous recessions. Second,
the 2008-09 downturn affected simultaneously many economies, and Turkey was thus not
singled out.