We employ a partial-condition designated probabilistic oil spill model based on a Lagrangian particle
technique to simulate the Dalian New Port oil spill accident. By correlating the model with aerial images
and field observations of oil slicks on the sea surface, the model is applicable for evaluating the probability
spatial scattering of the area polluted by the spilled oil. Evidence shows that multiple simulations
under specified conditions fit the real distribution and behavior of oil slicks more accurately than those
from fully random initial conditions. The findings suggest that the effects of seasonal variations in wind
and current dynamics within tidal cycles on spill distribution should be taken into account for estimating
the impact of potential oil spills in the North Yellow Sea. A statistical model that considers condition
selection could enhance the reliability of risk estimation and enable the application of appropriate recovery
operations in contaminated seas.