Thailand Country Risk:
The Thai military's extended stay in power until at least 2017 following the rejection of the draft constitution will allow for an acceleration of its efforts to remove former premier Thaksin Shinawatra (2001-2006) and his allies from domestic politics, risking a further deepening of the political divide in the country and a rapid regression towards Myanmar-style authoritarianism.
Government efforts to shore up the Thai economy and weak crude oil prices should help to support the ongoing economic recovery. That said, export headwinds will act as a drag. As such, we forecast Thailand's real GDP growth to come in at 3.3% in 2016, marking only a marginal increase from a forecasted 3.2% in 2015.
While the Thai government will increase spending in 2016 to accelerate the ongoing economic recovery, gradually improving...
Thailand Crime and Securities:
BMI View: Thailand is a relatively safe location for businesses and workers. Although the separatist insurgency in the south and the regular public demonstrations may hamper business activities, there is no security risk significant enough to consistently disrupt operations. However, there are some significant crime risks in the country, particularly stemming from financial, cyber and organised crime. Cyberattacks are one of the most pertinent concerns for businesses, and will require significant expenditure to mitigate. Simultaneously, Thailand's large organised crime network undercuts legitimate enterprises and colludes with authorities to hinder competition. The Royal Thai Police are notoriously corrupt and incompetent, meaning that crimes directed at foreigners and...
Thailand Labor Market:
Compared to other Southeast Asian countries, Thailand's labour market competitiveness is slipping. Due to a shortage of technical skills and unskilled labour, combined with rising labour costs, the country's is losing appeal as a manufacturing destination. Meanwhile, weakness in the education sector is preventing evolution of a knowledge-based economy, and poor foreign language skills prevent investment in international services.
Rising labour costs are the greatest element of labour market risk in the Thai economy, while a shortage of skills in key areas is another area of concern commonly cited by investors. This results from misalignment between industry and the education system, although education policy has improved significantly in the last decade. These elements combine to give Thailand a Labour Market risk score of 55.9 out of 100, ranking 54 th out of...