Selection reduces genetic variance and thus reduces genetic gain in subsequent generations due to the “Bulmer effect” (Bulmer, 1971). To account for this variance reduction and consequences on genetic response, the AGG was predicted, as proposed by Pryce et al., (2010), by averaging the genetic response over 10 generations corrected for variance reduction after each cycle of selection. In generation t, the variance of a selected category (sjl) was calculated as