By analyzing German domestic and international football score data we have shown that the
goal distributions can be modeled with a certain class of modified binomial models supplemented
by a built-in effect of self-affirmation of the teams upon scoring a goal. The simple Poissonian
ansatz assuming independent scoring probabilities is clearly ruled out. The NBD suggested earlier
[5], which fits many of our data sets quite satisfactorily, can in fact be understood as the limiting
distribution of our additive model “A”. It should be stressed that the exact distribution of model