Both simulation and spatial speciesdistribution models, show that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current
climate change scenarios are likely to result in an elongated blowfly season with earlierspring emergence and a higher cumulative incidence of strike. Strike incidence would beexpected to increase, particularly for ewes in early summer. However, under higher IPCCemissions senarios (+3 ◦C), parts of central and southern England may become too hot and
dry for strike by L. sericata to persist in mid-summer.