Conclusions and policy implications
Many of the studies that have disregarded hydrogen as a nearterm
alternative transport energy technology do not include a
zero-emissions target amongst the program objectives upon
which their evaluations are based. This contrasts with transport
programs where hydrogen vehicles are being actively
developed and deployed, which commonly include a transition
to zero-emissions transport as a stated critical success
factor. While zero-emissions could arguably be too lofty of an
objective, the data shows that even without this target there is
still no one clear technology silver bullet that is emerging in the
heavy-duty alternative transport space. On that basis alone
further study of alternative transport fuels and drivetrains is
clearly warranted.
While many hydrogen bus projects are underway in North
America and Europe, it is important to note that the Australian
context is different, partly due to the economics of
different transport fuels in Australia, and partly due to the
structure of the Australian bus transport industry. The constraints
are different, the sensitivities are different, the
manufacturing, disposal and duty cycles are all unique.
The economics of hydrogen delivery pathways have also
been researched to a level of detail that is sufficient for inclusion
in system level modelling, providing a platform upon
which to base Life Cycle Costing studies for entire transportation
systems. The conclusions drawn by these studies is
that the cost of hydrogen fuel cell buses will be above the cost
for conventional diesel buses for some time, without other
incentives to change the economics such as costs on greenhouse
gas emissions and local pollutants from fossil fuel
combustion.