ABSTRACT: Japan is the most rapidly aging country in the world: By 2005, one-fifth of the
population will be aged 65 years or older. Should the demographic dilemma be termed a "crisis,"
or is it a manageable problem for Japanese policy makers? The three contributors to this
Special Report give very different answers. According to Paul Hewitt of the Global Aging
Initiative Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the aging society is driving
the Japanese economy toward collapse. A major economic crisis, with worldwide consequences,
will be difficult to avoid, since negative trends are reinforcing each other. By constrast,
John Creighton Campbell of the University of Michigan does not see aging as a major cause of
Japan’s current slump or a necessary obstacle to future prosperity. The gradual nature of demographic
change will allow Japan to adjust, Campbell maintains. Chikako Usui of the University
of Missouri at St. Louis sees increased productivity as the key to Japan’s economic revitalization.
By making the transition to a more effiicent, information-based economy, Japan will be able to
use the skills of both young and old to weather the challenges of the coming decades.