In a typical capital budgeting analysis, a project’s initial cash outlay (ICO) is generally treated as
a single, certain cash outflow. However, upon closer inspection, one or more of the following
conditions may hold true in “real life”:
• The ICO may have several cash outflow components – e.g., land, land improvements,
buildings, machinery and equipment.
• Some of the ICO components may be certain cash flows and some may be uncertain/risky
cash flows.
• Some ICO components may be capitalized, but not subject to tax depreciation (e.g.,
land). An outflow like this is already “after-tax” and provides no depreciation tax-shield
benefits that would affect future after-tax operating cash inflows.
• Other ICO components may also be capitalized, but would be subject to tax depreciation
(e.g., land improvement, buildings, machinery and equipment). These outflows will have
spillover effects on future operating cash inflows because of their depreciation tax shield.
• Some ICO component flows may occur after time period zero.
Given these “real life” complicating factors involving a project’s ICO, we recommend that
sensitivity testing be applied to uncertain ICO components at the project-evaluation stage. Based
on this sensitivity testing, the firm can then better decide whether to: a) subject any ICO
component estimates to further refining/review; b) remove any ICO component uncertainty by
negotiating a fixed price contract for some service; c) outsource some in-house, uncertain ICO
cost item; or d) accept/reject the project based on the currently available information. The firm
can also identify the critical levels of cost overruns that should trigger a formal re-approval of
the project.