This paper investigates the impact of FFR surprises on US
stock returns between 1989 and 2012. We confirm previous
studies’ results by finding that outside the recent financial crisis, stocks reacted positively to unexpected FFR cuts. Furthermore, the response was asymmetric, characterised by state
dependence with respect to ‘good times’ versus ‘bad times’.
Importantly, we show that a structural shift occurred in late
2007, altering the response to FFR shocks and the nature of
state dependence itself. During the crisis period, stock market
investors did not react positively to unexpected FFR cuts. These
were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic
conditions, thereby triggering a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe-haven assets,
such as US 3 month Treasury bills and gold. Our results
highlight the severity of the recent financial crisis and the